Tuesday, November 04, 2008

Looking towards the playoffs

With three games to go as many as seven CAA teams have a chance for the playoffs. UMass is one of them.

Already by the boards is a playoff home game for UMass unless there is a complete meltdown. Generally, it takes a 9-2 record to host a home game.

Also gone is the Lambert Cup. We have lost to two team higher than us, so the only way to win it would be to make the National Championship game.

Here's my take on the last three weeks:

CAA South:
  • James Madison (currently 8-1 and 6-0 in the CAA) . Games: bye, William & Mary, @ Towson. The Dukes win both those games and go 10-1 and have a home field for the entire playoffs.
  • Villanova (currently 6-2 and 4-1 in the CAA) Games: UNH, Towson and @ hapless Delaware. I think the Wildcats win all three and go 9-2. Low fan attendance means, I think, a road trip in the playoffs.
  • Richmond (currently 6-2 and 3-2 in the CAA) Games: @ Hofstra, Delaware and @ William & Mary. I believe the Spiders will win all those games and end up 9-3 and have a playoff home game .
  • William & Mary (currently 6-2 and 4-1 in the CAA) Games Northeastern, @ JMU, Richmond. The Spiders will loose to JMU and Richmond to end up 7-4 and out of the playoffs.
The CAA North, on the other hand, will likely only get one team in the playoffs. UNH has the toughest schedule but has a loss to give. UMass and Maine very likely have to win out.
  • New Hampshire (currently 7-1 and 4-1 in the CAA) Games: @ Villanova, UMass, @ Maine. It think the Wildcats will loose at Villanova and set up the UMass game as the play-in for both clubs. Since I bleed Maroon & White, I'll pick UMass. UNH goes 1-2 and ends 8-3 and out of the playofs unless the CAA gets five teams again.
  • UMass (currently 6-3 and 3-2 in the CAA) Games Maine @ UNH, Hofstra. I think UMass wins out and goes 9-3 (only 8 DI wins however). UMass gets the lone CAA North playoff bid by means of the tie-breakers against Maine and UNH.
  • Maine (currently 6-3 and 3-2 in the CAA) Games @UMass, @ Rhode Island, UNH. I beleive the Black bears loose to UMass and UNH and finish 7-4 and out of the playoffs.
CAA Playoff teams:
  1. JMU 10-1. Ranked #1 seed in the playoffs
  2. Villanova 9-2. Road playoff game despite their record
  3. Richmond 9-2. One home playoff game
  4. UMass 9-3. On the road in their first playoff game (Wofford? Montana?)
If UNH wins the Villanova game and/or William & Mary beats either JMU or Richmond one of those teams could make the playoffs on tie-breakers. Either team could be the 5th CAA playoff entrant if the committee goes that way again this year.


Anonymous said...

Bryant doesn't count as a Division I win? Is that just for determining playoff at large bids? I'm pretty sure they count as a Division I opponent...

UMass74 said...

I e-mailed Jason Yellin and he said Bryant is a transitional DI team and does not count for the playoffs.

Anonymous said...

Because the playoff committee believes in trying to keep first round games close to home, I believe that Umass still has a chance to host against Patriots or NAC winner. I believe both conferances get auto bid this year.

John Emilian said...

I don't know what the NAC is (Northeast Conference maybe?) but the only conference with teams near us (besides the aforementioned Northeast Conference which does not receive an autobid nor has any potential at-larhges) is the Patriot League. But yes, if UMass got in the playoffs they would have a good chance of hosting the Patriot league winner a first-round game (especially if it is Holy Cross).

Anonymous said...

My mistake. NEC conferance gets auto bid in 2010