Wednesday, October 17, 2007

A look at the CAA playoff possibilities

The goal of a FCS/I-AA team is to make the playoffs. That's the reason for the FCS division existing. With five weeks to go in the 2007 season, it's time to look at some of the possibilities.

In great shape:
  • Hofstra. No team in the CAA is in better shape. The Pride is 6-0 and all wins are Division I. With five games to go, Hofstra only needs one win to be playoff eligible. The Pride could loose two of the five and still go 9-2 for the season. That's a lock for a playoff game. Hofstra was 2-9 last year
  • James Madison. The Dukes only loss is to BCS North Carolina. They currently have the most league wins (4-0). They should beat W &M and Towson. They are a lock for the playoffs with final games with Richmond, Delaware, W&M and Towson. The games with the Hens and the Spiders will determine who wins the CAA South.
  • UMass. The Minutemen do not have a league loss and are 5-1 overall. However, UMass needs to beat W&M, Rhody and Northeastern to stay in the hunt. If UMass looses to UNH or Hofstra, we might not win the CAA North Title and therefore must get a at-large bid. We would need to go 4-1 in the final five games to get a home playoff game. We need to win at least one of the Hofstra and UNH games.
Out of contention:
  • Towson. With four league losses, the Tigers are out. I thought Towson would contend for the CAA South title this year, but injuries and poor play have put the Tigers in the South's basement
  • Maine. Four CAA losses and 1-5 overall means the Black Bears are out of the playoffs and are having one of their worst seasons in recent memory
  • Northeastern. Three CAA league losses and a 1-5 overall record means the Huskies have no chance at an at-large bid.
  • Rhode Island. Ditto for the Rams 0-3 in the league and 1-5 overall.
On life support:
  • Villanova. The Wildcats are 2-2 in the league and 4-3 overall. They probably need to win out just to get an at large bid
  • William & Mary. Ditto for the Tribe. 2-2 in the league and 4-3 overall.
In a weird place:
  • Delaware. If the Hens beat Navy, they are golden. However, if they loose, things get dicey for Delaware. A loss to Navy means the Hens will only have six Div I wins going into their last three games with JMU, Richmond and Villanova. They would need to win two of the three to go 8-2 in Division I
Gotta win out:
  • New Hampshire. The Wildcats are 1-2 in the CAA and 4-2 overall. With a number of good teams in the CAA this year, UNH needs to win the CAA North, which they can do with wins over UMass & Hofstra. Three league losses probably means they will be sitting home this year. UNH's win over Marshall probably means the committee would choose them over other 8-3 CAA teams if it came to that.
In good shape:
  • Richmond. The Spiders have only one league loss and are 4-2 overall. They do have a tough final five with Rhody, JMU, Villanova, Delaware and W&M. Games with the Dukes and the Hens will decide the CAA South crown. Going 3-2 during the next five games probably will get JMU into the post season.

UPDATE: The Sports Media Network FCS gurus take a stab at the 2007 playoff brackets here .

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Our remaining games:
10/20 Northeastern
10/27 William & Mary
11/03 Rhode Island
11/10 New Hampshire
11/17 Hofstra

[quote]
UMass needs to beat W&M, Rhody and Northeastern to stay in the hunt. If UMass looses to UNH or Hofstra, we might not win the CAA North Title and therefore must get a at-large bid. We would need to go 4-1 in the final five games to get a home playoff game. We need to win at least one of the Hofstra and UNH games.
[end quote]

With a reduction/elimination of penalties and no more injuries - we can win out our schedule. The power of positive thinking tell me we are going to do so!

The concern I have is that we won't get home playoff games all the way through to Chattanooga. I don't want our team to fly across the country for a playoff game and then have to fly to Chattanooga the following week. It is too exhausting.

UMass74 said...

Unless there is an upset, it is highly likely that we will be on the road for the semi-finals.

Montana is playing a weak schedule this year and I think they will be 11-0, or at the very least 10-1. That along with their big attendance will guarantee them three home games. I don't think they would put us in Appalachian's bracket.

UNI has a domed stadium and Montana and Appalachian State have bigger stadiums than us. If we make the final four, we will probably be on the road.

We need a couple of upsets (and not us) :)