Last year the Minutemen defense did a fine job holding the Aggies to 334 yards total and 0-12 on third downs. In addition, the UMass defense held New Mexico State to 111 yards rushing and 3.5 yards/carry. The Minutemen had 10.5 TFL and 3 sacks. Those should be winning statistics.
The difference was on offense. UMass only totaled 259 yards of total offense and was shut out in the second half. Brady Olsen went 15-28 for 97 yards and 1 INT. The Minutemen's longest pass completion of the day was 19 yards. UMass had 162 yards rushing, but 66 of those came on one play. Other than Kay’Ron Adams 66 yard TD, the Minutemen rushed 23 times for 96 yards, about 4.1 yards/play.
The difference in the game was Aggie QB Diego Pavia. He is an Horatio Alger story all by himself. He had no offers coming out of HS. He led his JUCO team to a national championship---and still received little interest. Pavia started the second half against UMass and then started for the rest of New Mexico State’s season. Of New Mexico State’s 334 total yards, Pavia accounted for 250 (194 passing, 56 rushing). He won five of the Aggies last six games and was MVP of the Quick Lane Bowl against Bowling Green.
Pavia is not a dual-threat guy. He’s a scrambler who’s at his best running around making plays. UMass needs to keep him inside and not whiff on tackles.
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| The UMass defense needs to tackle Pavia |
Winning or losing this game is on the UMass offense. I think the Minutemen win if the offense scores 24 points and the odds go even better if we score 27-30 points. The UMass passing game needs to be at least average to give the Minuteman rushing game something other than facing eight-or-nine-in-the-box on every down. The Minutemen averaged 116.9 yards/game passing in 2022 (#128th in the nation). I am not yet sold on Taisun Phommachanh’s passing. Last year for Georgia Tech he appeared in two game went 2-5 for 13 yards and a 21.8 efficiency rating. If he is dialed in for UMass, then he will be the four-star QB we all long for him to be. If Phommachanh struggles, I think they need to give Carlos Davis a chance early.
I do think the Minutemen WR room has improved significantly this year. Mark Pope, Anthony Simpson and George Johnson III looked good in camp. Geno Campiotti can make plays at TE or H-back. Hopefully they will get him more than one or two targets a game. This is a lot more talent than we had last year. These receivers can make an impact on the entire offense. Go get the ball. Make plays.
New Mexico State should be in our wheelhouse. They are pretty much an average Group-of-Five team. In 2022 they lost to three Power Five teams (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Missouri) by a score of 21-149. The Aggies beat two weak FCS teams (Lamar, Valparaiso) by 100-17. New Mexico State went 5-3 against Group-of-Five teams. They are not Tulane, Air Force, UTSA, Toledo or Marshall. I think UMass’ defense will be even better this year and we will generate enough offense to win.
Go UMass!
