Wednesday -- October 30, 2013

The biggest ass-whipping we've taken since we went FBS? Michigan? Nope. Vanderbilt? Nope. Indiana? Nope ----- it was Northern Illinois. Last year UMass lost to the Huskies 63-0. The Minutemen just could do nothing with NIU. The Huskies totaled 610 yards of offense and averaged  8.1 yards/play.

NIU scored a TD the first eight times they touched the ball. The UMass offense had three fumbles and an INT. The Minutemen turned the ball over on downs four times.

This year NIU could be even better.

Dan Malone says the Minutemen are again faced with trying to contain Jordan Lynch.

Dan also has NIU coach Rod Carey talking about NIU's visit to Gillette.

Malone awards "Helmet Stickers" for Week #9.

Saturday's game will be picked up on a bunch of regional TV outlets.

College Football Performance Awards honored both Rob Blanchflower and Khari Bailey-Smith this week.

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The Chicago Tribune says playing in NFL stadiums is nothing new for Northern Illinois.

CBS Sports previews the NIU-UMass game.

The Global Post has a comprehensive team report on the Huskies.

Rant Sports predicts the MAC results for Week #10.

CBS Local looks at the teams with BCS Bowl potential. Hint--- one of them is NIU.

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I've never coached college football, but if it were me, I'd defense the Huskies like an option run team. I'd pull a linebacker and play an extra Safety. I'd task Khari Bailey-Smith or Antoine Tharpe with being Lynch's shadow...

Weekday MACtion is finally coming.

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More weird news from the football universe:

Did you know you now can invest in individual football players? I'm a life member of AAII. This is a cut-and-past from their weekly Investor Update newsletter:


  The financial services industry seems to have an endless reserve of ideas for how to make money for itself at the expense of investors. Among the latest of these ideas are an investment in a football player and bonds paying coupon payments with additional bonds. Oh boy....

The first is a tracking stock by Fantex Brokerage Services based on Houston Texans running back Arian Foster’s future earnings. He currently ranks fifth in total rushing yards; a hamstring injury he suffered in last week’s game lowered his season-to-date rank. Last year, Foster signed a $43.5 million contract, which included $20 million in guaranteed salary. Part of this guarantee was a $12.5 million signing bonus.

Fantex wants to sell 1.055 million shares, priced at $10 per share, in a tracking unit tied to 20% of Foster’s future income. Specifically, it is tied to Foster’s future earnings derived from his persona as a football player. If he should do something else, such as write a children’s book or become a musician, those earnings would be excluded. If Foster’s earnings diminish enough in the future, the tracking stock may convert into Fantex Inc. Platform common stock. Foster’s stock will trade on Fantex’s website and the company hopes to sign up other athletes in the future. A regulatory filing has been made with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the company is waiting for the SEC’s approval.
There is a long list of questions to be asked, with the biggest being: What is Foster’s future earnings potential? The average career of a NFL player is about three years, but Foster is in his fifth year and has so far displayed all-star talent. Running backs, on average, peak at age 27, but some remain very good players after this age. Injuries, however, are a real concern and are unpredictable. How marketable Foster is to national advertisers and what his career will look like after he is done playing is also questionable. Forecasting the future earnings of emerging companies like Telsa Motors (TSLA) and Twitter (TWTR) requires a tremendous amount of guesswork; forecasting Foster’s future earnings is even harder.

New York University professor Aswath Damodaran attempted to calculate the fair value of Foster’s stock and came up with a price of $6.11 per share. He then adjusted his calculations to factor in injury probabilities and determined a fair value of $5.07 per share. The details behind his assumptions are on his blog; it’s an interesting analysis from both a valuation and a football perspective.


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