UMass -Colgate 09/02/06
Background:
Matt Dougherty is picking Colgate to win the Patriot League. So are the Patriot league coaches.
The Colgate game notes are here (.pdf file) UMass has a game article here (games notes are not yet up).
UPDATE: UMass game notes are now up .
Playoff implications:
The goal of I-AA teams is to make the playoffs. Both Colgate and UMass are strong teams who have a good chance of making the playoffs, therefore this game has important ramifications for both clubs.
FOR COLGATE: After the UMass game Colgate plays Dartmouth, Monnouth, Georgetown, Princeton, @Cornell, @Fordham. I believe Colgate will win all those games. They then hit the iron of the Patriot League with a home game against Lafayette, @Lehigh. They close with two wins Holy Cross and @Bucknell. If Colgate looses against UMass, Lafayette and Lehigh they will stay home even with an 8-3 record. Loose one of those games and they will be in the playoffs. Some team will have the joy of playing @ Hamilton (and note that the Farmer’s Almanac is calling for a record cold winter)
For UMass:
UMass opens with three tough games: Colgate, @Navy and @Villianova. Navy has probably its best team in recent memory. Villianova is a “trap” game. In 21 games between the two clubs, the road team has only won four times. And this will be after a big effort at Navy. Loose to Colgate and UMass could start the season 0-3. UMass needs this game more than Colgate does.
UMass Defense against the Colgate Offense.
Last year UMass held Colgate to 9 first downs and 167 total yards and three offensive points. Hard to improve on those stats.
As in the past, Colgate employs a strong rushing game. Their star is RB Jordan Scott 1364 yards and 10 Tds. He’s a Payton watch candidate.
Colgate’s other offensive weapon is their quick slant passing game. It reminds me of Villianova’s. They throw quick passes behind the linebackers and then rely on the athleticism of the WRs to turn a short game into something more. Colgate beat UMass in the snow in 2003 with these types of throws. QB Mike Saraceno (2065 yards,12 TD) can pass. He has good targets in WR Kenny Parker (694 yards) and WR Erik Burke (426 yards). Offense is their strong suit and will probably take them into the post season.
UMass was #1 in the nation in scoring defense in 2005 and #5 in passing defense. I believe that the UMass defense will play well despite Colgate’s strong offense. What we want to avoid is turnovers. Give Colgate a short field and they will score.
UMass Offense against the Colgate Defense
This is where we should have a significant advantage. Colgate graduated their entire defensive line and two of their three linebackers. With UMass returning four starters Alex Miller, Matt Austin, David Thompson and Sean Calicchio, UMass should be able to run with Steve Baylark and Matt Lawrence all day.
The Colgate secondary should be the strength on that side of the ball. Safety Geoff Bean (68TT, 4 sacks, 2 INT) and CB Cody Williams (63TT, 4INT) are good ones.
Despite UMass’ strong passing game, we would want to pound the ball and be able to score on the ground. If Colgate’s secondary has to support against the run that should open the way for the passing game. Note that in 2005 Colgate held the UMass running game to 84 total yards and Baylark to 57 yards. We must do better in 2006.
Prediction:
Keeper has UMass by 19 points. Our Blogger Buddy Colgate13 has UMass winning 34-21.
My pick: UMass 31-21.
